Crises and Crashes: Argentina 1825-2002

ANA MARÍA CERRO, OSVALDO MELONI
REVISTA DE HISTORIA ECONOMICA / JOURNAL OF IBERIAN AND LATIN AMERICAN ECONOMIC HISTORY 31.2 (2013): 219-252

The objective of this paper is twofold. First, it identifies and categorizes the currency crises suffered by Argentina from 1825 to 2002. Second, it looks for regularities in the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in the neighborhood of crises by means of graphic analysis, non-parametric and econometric techniques. We found that expansions in public expenditures as well as increases in the debt to GDP ratio and falls in the rate of growth of bank deposits contribute to spur the probability of crisis. Unfavorable external conditions, jointly with domestic imbalances, help to explain very deep crises or crashes.